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Friday, October 26, 2012

Straight Ca$h Homey Week 9: Keep It in the Gut

Last week Notre Dame.
This week Lane Kiffin. Betting sucks.

Fact: Last week I ended up with a winning record (4-3).  Fact: Miami scored a pointless touchdown down 20 to rip a 4-2-1 record from me.  Fact: Notre Dame had the classic trap game and didn't get me my money game.

I have won 2 money games this year and right now owe over $100, so that's not very cool.  I am also 7.5 games back which isn't too bad, but there are 5 guys within a few games, so basically I am playing out the string.  What do I do?  Do I keep going with my gut, usually taking double-digit favorites on the road?  Or do I pick the teams I want to root for in the big games?  I mean this should be fun after all, and once I'm out of it, I kind of want to go with the teams I like.  (But Thank God I Didn't Take WVU Last Week.  Holy Shit!!@!@!@!@)  Even if I go with teams I want to win, if they lose and don't cover, it's a double punch in the dick.  I think I'm going to keep picking with my gut and if I finish last, then thems the breaks.  On to Week 9...

16Louisville -3.5 vs Cincinnati
8:00 ESPN (Friday)
One-loss UC comes into Papa Johns after losing to Toledo (#MACTION!!) and a steady 'ville team is favored by just over a field goal on a Friday night.  Like.  Oh, and a bet on the Friday night game? Double like.

UCLA +7 at Arizona State
3:00 FX
UCLA regains its mid-September form and beats Sparky, who is still smarting from the woodshed beating they took from the Alpha Ducks.  Anything over 4 and I like it.  Go Jim Mora Jr.s!

4Kansas State -7 vs. 15Texas Tech
3:30 FOX
The Beat the Shit Out of WVU Bowl takes place in the Little Apple this week.  Texas Tech beat TCU in a great 3OT thriller and blew WVU the f*ck out in back-to-back weeks, but...I'm still not sold.  What I am sold on is that Bill Snyder is the best coach ever and he will beat the Red Raiders by more than a touchdown in Bill Snyder Family Stadium with his Heisman front-running QB doing his thing.

$$$ 10USC -6.5 at Arizona $$$
3:30 ESPN2
Easy trap game for the Trojans, who play OU next week.  However, the line has moved from -10 to under a touchdown and I don't see the 'cats keeping Barkley, Woods, Redd, Lee and whatever 5stars they put into the game under 50.  Also, under a touchdown means if the game gets within 10 or14, Kiffin will try to score (and go for two) so there won't be any shitty losses like FSU last week.  No real reason this is the money game other than once it gets back to 10, USC can step back on the gas.  In this case, -7 is a whole nother ball game than -6.5.

9Ohio State -1 at Penn State
5:30 ESPN
I thought the line would be PSU -2 or 3 but the Buckeyes are still favored going on the road after a great but terrible win.  I guess they are still favored because, well, the Buckeyes have a better team, even if their middle linebacker was the starting fullback for the past 3 1/2 years.  The Buckeyes have no depth, but I doubt there are more than 3 players from Penn State that would make the Scarlet and Gray 2-deep.  Taking the Bucks on the road.  LET'S GO BUCKS!  This looks like a classic FU game from Vegas...make the crappy-looking team a road favorite by the over-achieving hot team, forcing bettors to take PSU and the points while the Bucks win by 10+.

8Oklahoma -10.5 vs 5Notre Dame
I have struggled mightily with this pick.  I really want to take the 5th ranked and undefeated Golden Domers against Big Game Bob and the under-performing-since-2000-crew...but how exactly is Notre Dame going to score more points than the Sooners?  10.5 is huge.  It's actually a giant slap in the face of Notre with a sign that reads NOT YET BACK BUT GOOD JOB BEATING THE B1G.  This falls into two objectives in this failure of a betting season.
1)Go against a "no duh" pick and
2)Have something on the big prime time game instead of shying away from it.

7Oregon State -4.5 at Washington
10:15 P12N (ESPN Scorecenter --> Gamecast on ipad/iphone)
Gotta roll with the Beavers and the less-than-a-touchdown-spread.  Washington has maxed out on their home-at-night-upset.  Hardly doubt I will be up past midnight and will check it Sunday morning, before I start the lawn stuff and listen to the Browns pregame.  Oh God do my Sundays suck ass.