I'm glad I don't have an addictive personality because I can see how people start betting and end up losing their rent or mortgage. Once I'm done, I'm done. I do it more for fun and I enjoy having something on a random game. I try to stay away from big spreads because I like to bet on a game where the actual outcome could factored. I don't find joy watching a 40 point blowout and having the 3rd team give up a touchdown with 1 minute left to lose the 37 point cushion they had on a 34 point spread. I usually take the favorite or high scoring teams that have spreads from 7-20 and take the top teams week after week (see: LSU, Bama, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin this year). I am a huge sucker for taking the favorite.
Anyway, for bowl games, I have taken the huge favorite, thinking they would ride the same momentum they had at the end of the year. However, there are disappointed teams, coaching moves and underdogs that want to end the season with momentum and have had a few weeks of rest and practice. This year, I have mostly gone with the teams I have taken the entire year expect for a few (Oklahoma State) and gone with teams I am actually rooting for because when the bowls kick off, coaches coach differently and some teams show up and some teams don't. It's really a coin flip, so I might as well bet on teams I am rooting for.
This year, the same buddies and I are in a weekly college football pick em (see: Straight Ca$h Homey) and have been infused with the Bowl pick 'em. I took a 2 game lead over Brad so I kept track of my weekly picks along with his.
I needed to stay within 2 games of him. That was aided when we both picked Boise -14, Baylor -9 and Alabama +1.
I am normally around .500, but this season has been amazing. Here are a few recient examples that I have enjoyed...
Bowl Season miracle cover #1:
|Belldozer made me some mooluah|
Bowl Season miracle cover #2:
|After 15 weeks, this was|
the game of the year. Huh?
Bowl Season miracle cover #3:
|Nice W. Nice non-cover.|
Rose Bowl-Wisconsin +6.5 (L 45-38 to Oregon, clocked ball after time ran out)
Poinsettia Bowl-TCU -10 (W 31-24 over Louisana Tech, season pick 'em Bowl Week Money Game)
|Hefty Lefty goes with his gut.|
You should too.
Go with the gut:
The number one thing I have learned is to go with my gut. When the lines first come out on Tuesday, there are about 4-5 games that stick out the first time I look at them. I write them down (spreadsheet) as my gut picks. Then I look over the lines again and again and again and pick about 4-5 more that I "like". I get my final 7 with the alternates included at the bottom. Then I wait until the picks are due to see if there are any changes such as a played getting suspended or an updated weather forecast.
Along with my own knowledge and research of the college season and the top teams, I head to the Internet to see what the nation is feeling. For betting purposes, I check out these sites:
Beyond the Bets Twitter: @BeyondTheBets
I like beyond the bets because it gives tips, trends and overall help to inexperienced bettors. Vegas Insider gives national trends and what the lines are currently compared to what they opened at so you can see what America is betting on and how the lines have moved. Pretty helpful when you are struggling with a game. If I had no job, I am sure I could find more resources, but I am a big "film" guy and watching the games are my biggest resource. Then I go with what I feel. You can do all the research you want, but if a guy falls down or misses a kick, you lose. I have come to the realization that half the games come down to a coin flip anyway. If .500 is a good record for picking games, you might as well have some fun with it and don't bet more than you can.
Betting on the NFL:
No way in hell will I ever touch an NFL game, other than betting on the Super Bowl coin flip or some other stupid prop bet. Any team can crush any other team and you would think betting on professionals is easier than college kids who cry when one of their hunnies gets with a teammate, but every game in the NFL is either going to overtime or it's over by halftime. I don't even look at the lines. Good luck with that. I try to play fantasy football where no lines are involved, just players, and I suck at that. Once they get their name called in April, I am done using football players for a quick buck.
|Everything looked so good|
I'm too emotionally involved and it's not even fun. I'm getting pissed as I type this.
Oh and by the way, after starting 0-5, I am currently at 14-15-1 for the bowls. I have 31 total points and sit 11th out of 16, 9 points behind the leader McBride. I am out of it after the Sugar Bowl, but I'm not in a bad place, compared to last year when I started 0-8 and I don't think I picked 10 games right. Anyway, here are the rest of my picks:
Orange Bowl (5 pts):
Clemson (-2.5) vs. West Virginia
Cotton Bowl (3 pts):
Kansas State (+7.5) vs. Arkansas (also weekly pick 'em)
Compass Bowl (1 pt):
Pitt (-5) vs. SMU
Go Daddy Bowl (1 pt):
Northern Illinois (+1) vs. Arkansas State
BCS Championship (8pts):
Alabama (+1) vs. LSU (also weekly pick 'em)
Enjoy the last remaining college football games we have left and always remember; don't bet what you don't have.