There are a bunch of good games on TV. I am an average bettor that looks at this stuff for a few hours each week and have a winning percentage of 67%, and I am not even winning my own pick 'em pool. The goal for point spreads is to have have of the bettors take one side. For Vegas to break even, the bettors should be around .500. Anyway, this year, the guys who pay rent by betting are absolutely killing Vegas. Therefore, all the spreads are inflated and I do not feel comfortable taking all 20 and 30 point favorites.
This week I am heavily relying on the trends of America and anything over 90% is fair game. I don't like to bet on random games that aren't even on TV and in the past this has bitten me in the ass, but that's my strategy this week. Conference USA/ESPN3.com dominates my picks to click for Week 8:
Update: Went 3-4 but won the money game. Whacky week and only two guys had above .500 records. Brad picked 5 games and extended his lead from .5 to 3.5 games.
|One way shootout|
I'll take Case
W Houston 63 Marshall 28. Keenum = Straight Ca$h Homey
|This what a knife looks like|
in a gun fight
W Nebraska 41 Minnesota 14. Game was over after the first. Uh yeah.
|Better get your cheers in|
#17 Texas A&M (-21) at Iowa State 330 ABC/ESPN Gameplan/ESPN3.com
Fresh off a win over Baylor, the Aggies head into Ames against a horrible Cyclone squad. TAMU may be down, but Tannehill threw 6 touchdowns last week against an above average BU team. He may get 600 against Cy and the boys.
L Texas A&M 33 Iowa State 17. I thought the Aggies would put up 70 and they did not. Damn.
43 catches/623 yards/4TD
A great Conf-USA clash between 5-1 teams. Home teams usually get 3 so these teams are even. 98% of America is taking the Mustangs so I'm gonna roll with the underdog who beat TCU on the road in overtime a few weeks back. That's about all I got.
L Southern Miss 27 SMU 3. Didn't see one play. Lost by 24.
Original Likes but taken off:
|could be a rough go|
for the Air Force Academy
|Backup quarterback Bryan Bennett|
White guy create-a-player
He ain't never scurred
|Thumbs up to you,|
#6 Wisconsin (-7.5) at #18 Michigan State 8:00 ABC GAMEDAY
Only a touchdown? Is it really going to be that close? At Sparty at night, ok. MSU's d-line makes me scared from my couch/south stands, but the 10-7 Buckeye game sticks with me. State is off a tough,
Michigan State 37 Wisconsin 31. Sparty gets big lead, Heisman bucky is rattled. Makers a furious comeback. Overtime is 99% certain. Cousins hits former backup quarterback Nicol on last play of the game. Michigan State may be on their way to turning the corner and replacing Penn State in the upper tier of the B1G. Great game and I guess Wisconsin's schedule caught up to them.
Games America Likes:
Illinois -4.5 90% at Purdue Purdue 21 Illinois 14. Down 21-0 in the 4th. Zook.
Clemson -10.5 96% vs. North Carolina Clemson 59 UNC 38. Clemson is for real. I think.
Kansas State -12 95% at Kansas KSU 59 KU 21. Kansas is horrible. OU-KSU this week.
Maryland +16.5 98% at Florida State FSU 41 UMD 16. They it should be.
Tulane -12.5 96% vs. Memphis Memphis 33 Tulane 17.
Alabama -29 92% vs. Tennessee Bama 37 Tenn 6. Barely cover. BAMA-LSU Nov. 5. 8 pm
Middle Tenn. -6.5 99% at FAU MDST 38 FAU 14
Washington State -3 95% vs. Oregon State OSU 44 WSU 21.